Monthly Market Insights from Bill Schiffman – June 2020

“Tryin’ to make it real, compared to what?” 

One of the greatest live albums ever recorded was Swiss Movement by Les McCann and Eddie Harris. It was culled from a performance in Montreux, Switzerland in June 1969. Some of the album was instrumental, with hits like “Cold Duck Time”, featuring Harris’ funky tenor saxophone backed by a punchy rhythm section led by McCann’s piano. But the signature tune was the anti-war anthem “Compared to What”. The five stanzas of lyrics painted a canvas of America trying to get a grip on itself during a turbulent period.

I’ve opined many times in these missives that I felt that our country is in a mental state akin to the late 1960s. The backdrop for that time period was a largely unpopular war in Vietnam as well as social unrest stemming from the civil rights movement. There were palpable significant divides – Black-White, North-South, pro-war-anti-war, wealthy-poor. To take a cue from the Talking Heads’ lead singer David Byrne, it feels like “the same as it ever was”. The Vietnam war has been replaced by the mask or no mask of COVID-19, but the other backdrops apply. Pundits say that history repeats itself, and I guess that’s where we are. It’s uncomfortable and scary, to be sure. Cities across America are facing mass protests related to the Minneapolis killing of George Floyd, sadly often resulting in looting and violence. My hometown of Columbus instituted a curfew Saturday night to quell downtown protests. Where all this leads is anyone’s guess. Folks are frustrated. The Coronavirus epidemic has led to historic death and unemployment. The world is slowing trying to re-open, but the toll on many businesses and entire industries looks to be massive. Like the late ’60s and early ’70s, it may take several years to recover from this combination of forces.

May’s stock market performance showed a welcome rebound. You’ll be pleased to see your monthly statements when they arrive. The S & P 500 reclaimed the 3000 mark, and NASDAQ had a strong surge. The Dow Industrials and small cap stocks lagged but still had outsized gains. Like the opening song lyrics, it seems as though equities are trying to state what’s really going to happen instead of taking its cue from the present scenario. To me, there’s a massive disconnect between Wall Street and Main street. It’s true that the stock market has been a historically efficient predictive mechanism. But isn’t it possible that we’re getting a little ahead of ourselves here? Is the shortest bear market in history over? Was it just a bump in the road for the overall bullishness? Are we going to have the V-shaped recovery that the markets are signaling?

I wish that I had answers. There are several factors that will be critical in the months ahead:

  1. Sustained volatility in the markets. Despite the nice upward trend in stocks, the VIX is still at elevated levels nearly three times what it was a year ago.
  2. The curve in unemployment claims is trending lower, but there’s still almost 40 million without a job. How quickly will people regain their former standard of living?
  3. The added unemployment compensation benefits run out this month. Will they be extended?
  4. Will there be another round of individual stimulus checks and corporate lending?
  5. Will the Federal Reserve continue its aggressive asset purchasing and lending practices?
  6. What will corporate earnings look like?
  7. How and when will the American consumer get back to historic spending habits?
  8. Can the stock market justify higher multiples if earnings are substandard?
  9. Can we remain in a relative détente position with China?
  10. How long will the protests in our streets last and what will be their overall effect?
  11. Will we have additional spikes in COVID-19, particularly in the fall?
  12. Who will win the Presidential election in November? What happens to control of Congress?

In my humble opinion, it’s been virtually impossible to trade this market. Wall Street hates uncertainty, and the dozen items above don’t totally encompass the challenges that lie ahead. May’s rally has been based on two items of perhaps wishful thinking. There’s anticipation of rapid advancement of a COVID vaccine or at least a prophylactic treatment akin to Tamiflu. There’s also the supposition that America will economically recover sooner rather than later. Whether these hopes are realized could spell the difference between extending the current rally or returning to the levels of February and March.

The bottom line is that we need to be patient. If you feel that you want to discuss risk tolerance and how your goals or strategies have changed, please make an appointment with us. Our team longs for the day when we can see you again without masks and social distancing. However, we are well equipped to handle get-togethers with technology.

I’m optimistic that science will triumph. America and the world will recover at some point. Trying to make it real in a pandemic world has few comparisons. But we’ll get through these crises… we always manage to do so. Most importantly, stay healthy and take care.

Sincerely,
Bill Schiffman

Registered Representative

The opinions expressed in this letter are those of William Schiffman and should not be construed as specific investment advice. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, no representation is made to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance information is historical and not indicative of future results. Diversification cannot assure a profit or guarantee against a loss. The S&P 500 Index is a broad based unmanaged index of 500 stocks, which is widely recognized as representative of the equity market in general. Indices are unmanaged and do not incur fees. One cannot directly invest in an index.

Fee-Based Planning offered through W3 Wealth Advisors, LLC – a State Registered Investment Advisor – Third Party Money Management offered through ValMark Advisers, Inc. a SEC Registered Investment Advisor – Securities offered through ValMark Securities, Inc. Member FINRA, SIPC – 130 Springside Drive, Suite 300 Akron, Ohio 44333-2431 * 1-800-765-5201 – W3 Wealth Management, LLC and W3 Wealth Advisors, LLC are separate entities from ValMark Securities, Inc. and ValMark Advisers, Inc.

Monthly Market Insights from Bill Schiffman – May 2020

“Minute by minute by minute by minute… I’ll be holding on”… a very timely hook/lyric from the Doobie Brothers circa 1978. As an aside, I wasn’t crazy about the addition of new lead singer, Michael McDonald, to the band. They morphed from a fun, entertaining bunch of rock and rollers to a homogenized group tailor made for adult alternative radio formats.

That being said, the lyric is quite appropriate for where we live today. In just two short months, the world has virtually abandoned any future planning in order to focus on daily tasks. Think how we’re all required to be present – washing hands, not touching our faces, using sanitizer, social distancing, wearing masks, planning formerly simple trips to the grocery or pharmacy. Every day is different, but every day is Groundhog Day. The upshot of being so immediately intentional is that we have less to look forward to. No one is planning vacations. When children will return to school is up in the air. Sports might come back, but probably in empty stadiums and arenas. What semblance of normalcy will we return to? When will it happen?

In the end, it’s all on the backs of science to make people feel safe. Very few will resume their prior lives without assurance that greater strides have been made on COVID-19. There needs to be mass availability for immediate testing and contact tracing. Prophylactic treatments, when discovered, will hopefully lead to a vaccine. Opening up businesses to get the economy on track doesn’t necessarily mean that folks will be flocking to them. I don’t know what letter of alphabet soup the recovery will look like, but it doesn’t seem like a “V” to me.

As we’ve discussed in prior missives, the stock market has been trading on immediate news via algorithms. However, you’ll be pleasantly surprised to see your statements for last month. Per CNBC, April 2020 was the best April in 82 years. That’s a rather flabbergasting statistic – equities tanked in the first quarter, only to have a substantive retracement. Why all the optimism? Did we have the quickest bear market on record? Can we trust what happened in April?

In my opinion, April’s positive track was due to two factors: hope and the Federal Reserve. Hope is rooted in COVID-19 treatments coming through the pipeline more quickly than originally thought. There is a great race in biotech to be the company that comes up with the universal pandemic panacea. Perhaps as importantly, the Fed has acted decisively to make funds available through various programs. This has allowed many businesses to stay open for the near term.  As an advisor, I cannot afford to be totally rooted in the present. A major portion of my job is to anticipate what things will look like in the future. The stock market tries to do the same exercise, although it’s muted in times of excessive volatility like we’re experiencing now.

What do I see ahead? On the downside, I’m predicting a rash of bankruptcies and unemployment lasting longer than we’d like. I’m envisioning a very slow return to business as usual. The travel, hospitality, and restaurant industries face a long slog. Brick and mortar retail will continue to be eschewed in favor of online avenues. Colleges and universities will have difficulty staying afloat, as will many municipalities. The national debt will balloon geometrically. The bottom line is that it’s relatively easy to talk about the negatives. I’ve barely scratched the surface.
At the same time, there are balancing positives. There’s an old saying, “Don’t fight the Fed.” With Chairman Powell committed to keeping the monetary spigot open indefinitely, that’s a critical bulwark. I’m also confident that Americans will get back to being Americans when the safety of a vaccine is available for all. Pent up demand for all that we cannot do or buy now will be incredible.  Equities continue to be virtually impossible to trade. The VIX, or Volatility Index, is still three times what it was before the Coronavirus hit. Yesterday’s Dow trading saw a 3% intraday move, and those have been the norm. In the past two plus weeks, oil has gone from negative $37/barrel to positive $26. What logicality is there in that move?

As investors, it all boils down to assumption of risk and timeframe. I have no idea whether or not this upward trend will continue. We may have missed a historic buying opportunity in March. Then again, Warren Buffett didn’t buy anything either. The daily vicissitudes of Wall Street are both wondrous and aggravating. I wish that my crystal ball weren’t so opaque.  This is a better time to discuss these issues than a couple months ago simply because the overall level of sheer terror has subsided. It’s much easier to be rational when portfolios are recovering rather than plummeting. RC, Ruth, Christie, and I are here to assist in any way we can. Please feel free to reach out at your convenience.

Finally, don’t forget to think about mothers on Sunday. Whether or not we like living in a nervous world, we wouldn’t be here without them. Take care and stay healthy. Minute by minute by minute, we all need to keep holding on.

Sincerely,
Bill Schiffman
Registered Representative

The opinions expressed in this letter are those of William Schiffman and should not be construed as specific investment advice. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, no representation is made to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance information is historical and not indicative of future results. Diversification cannot assure a profit or guarantee against a loss. The S&P 500 Index is a broad based unmanaged index of 500 stocks, which is widely recognized as representative of the equity market in general. Indices are unmanaged and do not incur fees. One cannot directly invest in an index.

Fee-Based Planning offered through W3 Wealth Advisors, LLC – a State Registered Investment Advisor – Third Party Money Management offered through ValMark Advisers, Inc. a SEC Registered Investment Advisor – Securities offered through ValMark Securities, Inc. Member FINRA, SIPC – 130 Springside Drive, Suite 300 Akron, Ohio 44333-2431 * 1-800-765-5201 – W3 Wealth Management, LLC and W3 Wealth Advisors, LLC are separate entities from ValMark Securities, Inc. and ValMark Advisers, Inc.

Monthly Market Insights from Bill Schiffman – April 2020

“Sometimes in our lives, we all have pain… we all have sorrow… but if we are wise, we know that there’s always tomorrow… lean on me, when you’re not strong… and I’ll be your friend… I’ll help you carry on… for it won’t be long… ‘til I’m gonna need somebody to lean on…”

A rather obvious choice for this installment as we honor Bill Withers – a great singer and perhaps even a better songwriter – who died recently at age 81. The combination of a simplistic melody (key of C major) and powerful words makes a perfect song for the age of COVID-19. We’re a little further on in the cycle, but there’s still a long way to go.

Three weeks ago, I used the Serenity Prayer as the backdrop for my thoughts. It’s perhaps even more important now as our lives continue to markedly change. In Ohio, the population has done an excellent job following the directives of Governor DeWine. He and a handful of other governors (Washington, California, New York, New Jersey) have taken the science seriously from the beginning. As a result, Ohio has far fewer Coronavirus cases and fatalities. We’re sheltering in place, working from home (those of us who still have jobs), and keeping proper social distancing. How long we’ll be doing these things is a matter of speculation. But I have no doubt that some behavioral patterns will permanently change when we’re through the tunnel.

One example is that I’ll be spending less physical time in the office. I’m comfortable working from home (as long as our four dogs aren’t barking). Technology allows us to communicate with our team on a daily basis. We have a set Microsoft Teams call at 9:30 AM every weekday to discuss what we need to be working on that day. Following that chat, we’re either on our own or collaborating remotely to get things accomplished. There are some inefficiencies (we have to use more complex applications than Zoom because of privacy issues), but we’re muddling through them. Will we continue to rely on remote work when the proverbial coast is clear? I’m not sure, but it’s not a bad bet that we will.

The simple exercise of being with other people will take significant adjustment. Sheltering in place, like anything we do, becomes a habit after a few weeks. How long will it take folks to get comfortable being in a crowd again? When will I get on a plane to see out-of-town clients? Will I ever be at ease attending a major sporting event? The thought of watching Buckeye football with 110,000 of my closest friends is currently anathema.

The Federal government was late to the recognition of the seriousness of COVID-19. The United States is still woefully lagging in testing for the virus. Medical supplies for first responders and health care workers have been spotty. There are daily disagreements between the White House and the doctors on their Coronavirus task force. States and cities have been left largely to fend for themselves. It’s where we now stand, and I don’t see things changing any time soon. The sad fact of the matter is that we’re not much further along in the fight to eradicate Coronavirus than we were in February. I’m confident that science will eventually win, but how long it will take to do so is anybody’s guess. The worldwide economy, with a few exceptions, has ceased. Unemployment will possibly reach levels not seen since the Great Depression. Programs to get money in the hands of folks that need it most are slowly ramping up, but not smoothly working yet. Fortunately, the Federal Reserve has opened its checkbook and seemingly will do all that’s necessary to keep things afloat.

Everybody wants to get back to work. Everybody wants the economy to rebound as quickly as prudently possible. I understand this imprimatur, but am leery of its execution. Just because a restaurant or shopping mall re-opens doesn’t mean that people are going to immediately patronize them. I honestly feel that folks are underestimating the psychological damage that will result from this crisis. Anxiety levels are quite high (as they should be) as we fear for our health and well-being. Economic hardship only adds to the scenario. The ethos of angst can’t go away with the snap of a finger or a government directive. It’s simply going to take time to arrive at any semblance of “normal” as we knew it.

Since the primary purpose of these letters is to comment on the markets, I’ll share a few thoughts. The last couple months have given us the most rapid bear market in history (per CNBC1). The major averages plummeted around 35% at their nadir, but had a double digit percentage recovery last week. Volatility, while lessening a bit, is still roughly four times the level that it was in January. Swings of 3-7% in equities are near daily occurrences. To try to anticipate what will happen in the short-term is folly.

This quarter’s earnings season begins this week. I’m guessing that reports will be almost uniformly negative with future guidance omitted. Even with the Fed being so accommodative, the earnings backdrop won’t be a plus for bulls. My feeling is that things will continue to be very choppy until we receive some positive science news on COVID-19. Wall Street has already punted on 2020, and is looking to 2021. Because of the psychological issues mentioned above, I don’t think that the hoped-for V-shaped recovery is possible. A U-shape might happen, or even an L. Believe me, I’d love to be wrong about this.

Perhaps we overshot to the downside… I simply don’t know. The chartist in me says that a retest of the lows would be healthy for the market. I’d prefer not to go there emotionally, but there’s no way to tell yet. Investing in the current market is extremely difficult because of the volatility. Algorithms are running the show and are wholly dependent on minute-by-minute news flow. We have always been long-term in our framework, and will continue to be.

I’m optimistic for the long-term. America has weathered significant storms before. We will make great strides as a country because of COVID-19, not in spite of it. Crises tend to spur innovation. They also tend to promote a sense of unity and overall respect. I can profoundly feel a new sense of caring and cooperation. I am hopeful that these sentiments will linger long after the Coronavirus is gone.

In the meantime, take Bill Withers’ lyrics to heart. Don’t be afraid to lean on someone (from a proper social distance, of course). Try to control only what you can control on a day-to-day basis. Continue to make the best out of this difficult situation. Most importantly, stay safe and healthy.

Feel free to let me know your thoughts. RC, Christie, Ruth, and I have been working on a couple new initiatives which you’ll be seeing in the next couple weeks. They will have nothing to do with investments… just a tease for now… take care.

Sincerely,
Bill Schiffman
Registered Representative

1https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/11/the-sp-500-has-rebounded-25percent-in-less-than-three-weeks-heres-whats-going-on.html

The opinions expressed in this letter are those of William Schiffman and should not be construed as specific investment advice. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, no representation is made to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance information is historical and not indicative of future results. Diversification cannot assure a profit or guarantee against a loss. The S&P 500 Index is a broad based unmanaged index of 500 stocks, which is widely recognized as representative of the equity market in general. Indices are unmanaged and do not incur fees. One cannot directly invest in an index.

Fee-Based Planning offered through W3 Wealth Advisors, LLC – a State Registered Investment Advisor – Third Party Money Management offered through ValMark Advisers, Inc. a SEC Registered Investment Advisor – Securities offered through ValMark Securities, Inc. Member FINRA, SIPC – 130 Springside Drive, Suite 300 Akron, Ohio 44333-2431 * 1-800-765-5201 – W3 Wealth Management, LLC and W3 Wealth Advisors, LLC are separate entities from ValMark Securities, Inc. and ValMark Advisers, Inc.

Monthly Market Insights from Bill Schiffman – February 2020 (Update)

“M-m-m-m-m-m-my Corona!”

A little twist on the catchy 1979 song “My Sharona” by one-hit wonders The Knack. Given what the stock market is doing today, it’s a rather obvious choice for this month’s song title. Because many of us are rightfully concerned about the impact of the Coronavirus on our investments, I thought that I’d get the normal month-end missive out a week early.

Up to today, equities have behaved decently in the face of what could become a worldwide pandemic. Early last week showed a decline in new cases along with a relatively optimistic view of containment in China. Unfortunately, hundreds of victims have been found in South Korea and Italy over the weekend and massive quarantining now has been mandated in both countries.

The bottom line is that the Coronavirus is a very fluid scenario. Chinese supply chains have already been adversely affected. The travel and leisure industries are seeing massive cancellations and a few new bookings. The price of crude oil is bottoming due to projected lower demand. With today’s steep selloff, the usual suspects of bonds and gold are doing well as safe-haven alternatives.

As we mentioned last month, the market seemed in need of a correction, and the Coronavirus provides a powerful catalyst. February saw a rise in frothiness, as Tesla literally doubled to over $900 in several trading days. Virgin Galactic through mid-last week was up a mere 239% since the beginning of the year. Fear of missing out makes for speculative plunging, and we’re seeing the back side of these trades as we speak.

Somewhat overlooked in all the Coronavirus discussion is another potential proverbial Black Swan – the rapid ascendancy of Bernie Sanders in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. While the overall Democratic race and debates have resembled a circular firing squad, Sanders has all but eliminated Elizabeth Warren from contention in the progressive lane of the party. All of the others, including the new face Mike Bloomberg, are vying for the support of the more moderate lane. Sanders just might be able to garner an insurmountable need after Super Tuesday next week, and the top of the ticket would feature an unabashed Socialist. As you can imagine, Wall Street would be quite unhappy with anyone who would attempt to radically change economic policy.

There are many apt comparisons between Sanders in 2020 and President Trump in 2016. Both men are outsiders in the lens of traditional government. They have both appealed to the less centrist voters in their parties. Trump had the nomination won quite early in the caucus process in 2016, and Sanders appears to be heading that way now. Trump ended up winning in what still is considered a surprise, and who’s to say that demographics couldn’t provide a similarly shocking Sanders win in November? Wall Street has a right to be nervous.

When human traders become anxious, so do their bloodless black box counterparts. The “shoot now, ask questions later” mentality reigns supreme. The VIX, or Volatility Index, is skyrocketing. But should we as long-term investors follow suit?

Believe me, I understand both your angst and pain, but let’s put some things in perspective. Today’s carnage puts us only slightly underwater for 2020 equities performance. This is following an extraordinary 2019. If you were to get out of the market now, when would you have the confidence to get back in? The SARS epidemic of 2002 saw a peak to trough decline of 7% in the S & P 500. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Coronavirus/Sanders news flow doesn’t lead to a worse result. But this is temporary. The market rebounded after SARS was contained, and it hopefully will again when there’s more visibility.

There is no doubt that the Coronavirus will have a significant impact on many areas of the economy. Retail stores will see inventory shortages in electronics and soft goods. It might take a while for folks to get comfortable being on an airplane or a cruise ship. But, as the famous philosopher once said, “this too shall pass”. When it does, people should get comfortable investing again.

I keep coming back to the fact that the ten-year benchmark Treasury is now around 1.4%. This figure is lower than the dividend yield on the S & P 500, and that equities yield goes higher when stocks go down. If the economy slows down too noticeably, the Federal Reserve will have little choice other than to lower rates again. This would potentially make stocks even more attractive.

This morning on CNBC, Warren Buffett was his usual measured and brilliant self. He said that there was no reason to buy OR sell today based on the Coronavirus. He kept mentioning the fundamentals of the strong US economy and the fact that things would not be changing dramatically any time soon. He also mentioned how inexpensive borrowing money is underpinning stocks.

It’s a scary time, but we’ve been through these types of events before. Our team of Kelley, RC, Christie, and I are here to guide you through these difficult waters. Please feel free to call or e-mail with questions or comments. In the meantime, don’t forget to breathe and think in the longer term.

Sincerely,

Bill Schiffman

Registered Representative

The opinions expressed in this letter are those of William Schiffman and should not be construed as specific investment advice. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, no representation is made to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance information is historical and not indicative of future results. Diversification cannot assure a profit or guarantee against a loss. The S&P 500 Index is a broad based unmanaged index of 500 stocks, which is widely recognized as representative of the equity market in general. Indices are unmanaged and do not incur fees. One cannot directly invest in an index.

Fee-Based Planning offered through W3 Wealth Advisors, LLC – a State Registered Investment Advisor – Third Party Money Management offered through ValMark Advisers, Inc. a SEC Registered Investment Advisor – Securities offered through ValMark Securities, Inc. Member FINRA, SIPC – 130 Springside Drive, Suite 300 Akron, Ohio 44333-2431 * 1-800-765-5201 – W3 Wealth Management, LLC and W3 Wealth Advisors, LLC are separate entities from ValMark Securities, Inc. and ValMark Advisers, Inc.

Monthly Market Insights from Bill Schiffman – February 2020

“Home is where the hatred is… home is nothing but pain… and it might not be such a bad idea… if I never went home again.”

The late Gil Scott-Heron wrote and performed these haunting lyrics in 1971. The song “Home is Where the Hatred Is” has been re-worked by many diverse artists, from Esther Philips to James Chance and the Contortions. It’s both a beautiful and incredibly sad song, and I urge you to sample it via YouTube.

The reason for my musical choice this month is that we ended January with plenty of angst and rancor. The United States may have been the epicenter, but world events showed that there was plenty of division to spread around.

The impeachment trial of President Donald Trump appears as though it will close later this week with a full acquittal. The episode has ended up to be little more than bad televised theater. Democrats bungled the proceedings from the outset, and Republicans stonewalled the information flow to achieve their desired end. Emotions ran high on both sides, and the network coverage spillover inflamed the atmosphere regardless of whose side one favored. The final result is that America didn’t win anything. The deep political divide in our country has only been exacerbated. President Trump’s power will only increase. Congress can now return to whatever it is that they normally do (or don’t do). The entire display was noxious, and it’s difficult to see how the United States can profit from it.

Not to be outdone, Britain left the European Union on Friday. “Brexit” has been a bone of contention across the pond for a couple of years. It was originally approved by a similar contingent of voters that propelled President Trump into the White House. Since the vote, there has been “Bregret” about the imperative, but not enough to overturn the decision. Even within Britain, there is much dissension in the ranks. Scotland basically would like to secede from the motherland, and unity between Ireland and Northern Ireland on the matter appears impossible. We’ll have to see how this one plays out in the Eurozone, but it’s not exactly a happy affair for now.

In China, the rapid spread of the coronavirus has isolated that country. Like the SARS epidemic of 2002-3, it seems as though the Chinese government underestimated the strength and velocity of the health problem. The source of the virus, Wuhan (a city of 11 million), is quarantined. Now that the understandably muted Lunar New Year festivities have ended, Beijing workers are being urged to work remotely. Airlines have suspended travel into and out of China and Hong Kong. Coronavirus cases are now being seen in many countries, including eight as of this writing in the US. I flew back from Houston on Friday night, and one of the flight attendants donned a mask halfway through the trip (AFTER serving drinks and snacks!).

Since the alleged purpose of my monthly missives is to opine on the stock market, let’s move there. The coronavirus provides the perfect segue. Equities enjoyed a lovely run in the fourth quarter of 2019, and January started off in a promising way. From a charting and technical perspective, stocks looked overbought by the third week of last month. When these indicators arise, a temporary selloff often comes. The coronavirus news spread panic as well as the supposition that the Chinese economy would be negatively affected. Wall Street took its cue, and traders (human and machine alike) sold shares rather indiscriminately. The bottom line is that portfolios were slightly down in January, and the momentum would suggest that the slide isn’t over.

I did a bit of research on the market reaction to the beginning of SARS two decades ago. Stocks slid then, to a final trough of roughly 7% before the news flow allowed them to recover. Given the fact that Wall Street has been long overdue for a correction, the coronavirus is a perfect catalyst. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if a similar slump didn’t occur here. Don’t panic… this is a normal occurrence for the market, even without the spur of an epidemic. We’ve been through many corrections together, and we’ll get through this one if it does indeed play out.

The bottom line for me is centered on one number – the yield of the ten year Treasury at 1.53%. Who is really going to invest over a decade to achieve a paltry return, albeit guaranteed? The dividend payout on the S & P 500 exceeds what government paper will pay, so isn’t it still logical to remain in equities? The corporate earnings cycle thus far has been more than decent, and inflation remains quite low. The US is still at relatively full employment. We’re nowhere near a recession at this juncture since GDP remains positive (a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth). As investors, we must remember to cut through the clutter of the news flow and concentrate on fundamentals. The impeachment saga has been meaningless for Wall Street. Brexit will take a while to evolve. The coronavirus scare will hopefully mirror what happened in the SARS cycle. Stay calm and breathe.

Tomorrow may give some of us another reason to remember the lyrics to this month’s song since the Iowa caucus will give us a first peek into President Trump’s Democratic challenger. If Sanders or Warren should win, markets might over-react to the downside. Again, remember that markets go down faster than they go up. My feeling is that the “dip” will be bought at some point since bond yields are so low.

Let’s end on a couple of positive notes – neither Punxsatawny Phil nor Buckeye Chuck saw his shadow this morning, so the groundhog indicator is for an early spring. Finally, yesterday, 02/02/2020, was the first palindromic day in 909 years. Talk about a long time between drinks!

Thanks as always for your continued trust and support. Our team of Kelley, RC, and Christie is here to help you through what may be a period of increased market volatility. Please feel free to e-mail or call with your comments. I look forward to hearing from you soon.

Sincerely,

Bill Schiffman

Registered Representative

The opinions expressed in this letter are those of William Schiffman and should not be construed as specific investment advice. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, no representation is made to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance information is historical and not indicative of future results. Diversification cannot assure a profit or guarantee against a loss. The S&P 500 Index is a broad based unmanaged index of 500 stocks, which is widely recognized as representative of the equity market in general. Indices are unmanaged and do not incur fees. One cannot directly invest in an index.

Fee-Based Planning offered through W3 Wealth Advisors, LLC – a State Registered Investment Advisor – Third Party Money Management offered through ValMark Advisers, Inc. a SEC Registered Investment Advisor – Securities offered through ValMark Securities, Inc. Member FINRA, SIPC – 130 Springside Drive, Suite 300 Akron, Ohio 44333-2431 * 1-800-765-5201 – W3 Wealth Management, LLC and W3 Wealth Advisors, LLC are separate entities from ValMark Securities, Inc. and ValMark Advisers, Inc.

Monthly Market Insights from Bill Schiffman – January 2020

“Faster than a speeding bullet… more powerful than a locomotive… able to leap tall buildings at a single bound…Look! Up in the sky! It’s a bird… it’s a plane… it’s the 2019 stock market!”

What a year for equity investors! 2019 will go down as a banner one, with overall performance not seen since 1997. It’s been a happy time for us all, and we’d like nothing better than for the parade to continue. Why was 2019 so positive, and what’s in store for 2020?

There were many factors for the tremendous equities gains – low-interest rates, solid corporate earnings, minimal unemployment, lack of any major exogenous trauma, manageable inflation, and momentum. Almost every asset class was profitable. Fixed income had slight gains, and commodities did well. Gold had its best year in a while, and even the price of crude rebounded in the fourth quarter. All in all, 2019 exceeded the expectations of virtually every pundit, including me. I was confident that we’d have a rebound, but I certainly didn’t foresee the out-sized gains we experienced.

2020 promises to be an interesting change. From a statistical point of view, according to S & P, after equities post a gain of 20% or more during a year, the next year averages another 11.2% leg up. I’m not sure that we’ll get to that level, but I remain optimistically constructive about the underlying macroeconomics. What could possibly derail the train? The upcoming Presidential election could have a significant impact on investor sentiment. At this juncture, many voters might let their portfolios make their choice for them, in which case a Trump re-election seems likely. A victory by a progressive Democrat (Sanders, Warren) would almost certainly be viewed negatively by Wall Street. My first proverbial line in the sand will be drawn after “Super Tuesday” in early March. At that time, we’ll perhaps know who Trump’s opponent will be. Handicapping November 2020 might become easier after that. Don’t forget that Wall Street hates uncertainty more than anything else, and clarity about America’s next four years of leadership will be helpful. Traders have done an excellent job divorcing themselves from the DC miasma thus far, and there’s no reason to assume that they won’t continue along this path.

Last December, we were in the process of bottoming out on the major averages after a disastrously negative (down 19% at nadir) quarter. I opined that it was not time to panic and that the elevated volatility levels we were experiencing would soon subside. We stayed rather bullish on stocks and were rewarded for our steadfastness. Santa re-appeared this year because there was no tax-motivated loss harvesting. In addition, under-performing hedge funds had to “window dress” their portfolios by adding equities holdings. It’s been a strong December in 2019, adding to the already nice news of the past year. We might see a bit of profit-taking in January, but the groundwork for more gains hasn’t changed. There’s also the psychology of “FOMO” at work. Fear of missing out might spur retail investors to invest idle cash which is still sitting at elevated levels. We’ll continue to assess 2020 as the year unfolds, but it’s nice to take a victory lap every once in a while.

The last market letter of the year allows us to review our prior year predictions and give some hypotheses for the coming twelve months.

Let’s first go over last year’s thoughts:

1.) The Mueller probe will be completed in the first quarter of 2019 with devastating consequences for the President and many of his allies. THE REPORT ARRIVED MID-YEAR AND DID NOT HAVE THE EFFECT THAT WAS EXPECTED. PRESIDENT TRUMP CONTINUED HIS TERM LARGELY UNSCATHED.

2.) The Federal Reserve will only raise rates once in 2019. Jay Powell will continue to be the Chairman. BOWING TO PRESIDENTIAL PRESSURE, THE FED ACTUALLY LOWERED RATES IN 2019. CHAIRMAN POWELL CONTINUES HIS TENURE.

3.) In a stunning reversal, Brexit will not occur. Theresa May will be replaced as Prime Minister. Another major Western European leader will also depart in 2019. I MIGHT HAVE DONE A BETTER JOB PREDICTING THE EUROZONE THAN AMERICA LAST YEAR. BREXIT HAS NOT OCCURRED YET, AND BORIS JOHNSON IS THE NEW BRITISH PM. ALL OTHER MAJOR LEADERS ON THE CONTINENT ARE STILL THERE, BUT PERHAPS NOT FOR LONG.

4.) ISIS and Al-Qaeda will be emboldened and resume terrorist activity. THANKFULLY, NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS PREDICTED, BUT THEY’RE BACK ON THE MAP.

5.) Relations with North Korea will remain status quo. CORRECT THUS FAR.

6.) Syrian Kurds will suffer significant losses after American troops leave their country. SAD, BUT TRUE.

7.) Stock market volatility will remain elevated for most of 2019. CERTAINLY MISSED ON THIS ONE. WE WENT FROM AROUND 30 ON THE VIX INDEX AT 2018 YEAR-END TO AROUND 13 TWELVE MONTHS LATER. MOST OF 2019 WAS QUITE PLACID INDEED.

8.) There will be a resolution to the US-China tariff issue, but not as favorable as originally designed. PRETTY MUCH CALLED THIS ONE ON THE MONEY.

9.) The Cleveland Browns will make the NFL playoffs, and the Columbus Blue Jackets will reach at least the NHL conference finals. WHAT WAS I THINKING?

10.) The stock market will rebound, but not after several periods of choppiness. We’ll be back in the black. Fixed income and commodities will remain relatively flat. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, DID NOT FORESEE THE MAGNITUDE OF THE GAINS, BUT I’D RATHER UNDER-PROMISE AND OVER-DELIVER.

11.) BONUS PREDICTION – Donald Trump will resign the Presidency in 2019 following the indictment of his eldest son. MAYBE I NEED TO GO BACK TO THE BROWNS AND BLUE JACKETS?

Perhaps not a stellar year for the crystal ball, but the portfolio results (pardon the pun) trumped my State Fair predictive abilities.

Let’s reload for 2020:

1.) The Presidential election will be contested by two seventy somethings.

2.)  Angela Merkel will step down from the Chancellorship of Germany.

3.) 2020 will be another record year for climate change related events (fires, earthquakes, hurricanes, cyclones, ice cap melt).

4.) Both the Senate and House of Representatives will be under Democratic control. At least one prominent Republican senator will lose his/her seat because of fallout related to the impeachment trial.

5.) The Federal Reserve will neither raise nor lower interest rates in 2020.

6.) US stocks will have a positive year, with gains in the high single digits. International markets will slightly out-perform on a relative basis.

7.) Gold will temporarily spike in price during the election cycle due to fear that President Trump will not be re-elected.

8.) The Boeing 737 Max fleet will finally be approved for world air travel.

9.) There sadly will be a major terrorist event on either American or European soil.

10.) Major network televiewing habits will decline in 2020 on account of political commercial fatigue.

I was lucky enough to visit Vietnam and Cambodia this month. Vietnam is a most exciting country… they’ve made incredible strides since the end of the war 45 years ago. It’s a fascinating blend of rampant capitalism under Communist rule. There is a massive dichotomy between the almost Western feeling cities of Saigon and Hanoi, and the rural central highlands or northern agrarian areas. There are still vestiges of the war, from the tunnel city of Cu Chi to the third generation of Agent Orange babies. But you can’t help experiencing the youth and optimism of this rapidly developing part of Southeast Asia. I can’t wait to go back. Cambodia, on the other hand, was quite difficult for me. The country is preternaturally beautiful, and I spent the better part of three days exploring 12th-century temples in Angkor Wat.

However, I couldn’t get my arms wrapped around the fact that the Pol Pot regime basically killed 6000 people daily from 1975 through 1979. There’s literally no one between the ages of 40-65 living in the country. An entire generation was lost. There’s not enough work for the young generation, so they migrate to Vietnam or Thailand. There’s little, if any, semblance of health care for the populace. Cambodia reminded me a bit of Cuba – wonderfully gentle people living in tropical natural beauty, but with little chance of bettering their lot in life. It’s simply a matter of opportunity, which is one of the many things we take for granted in America.

As we close out the year and decade, I again want to thank you for your trust and support. Our team of Kelley, RC, Christie, and me will continue to assist you with any questions that you have as we all get a bit older. Hug and kiss the ones you love…

Happy New Year!

Sincerely,

Bill Schiffman

Registered Representative

The opinions expressed in this letter are those of William Schiffman and should not be construed as specific investment advice. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, no representation is made to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance information is historical and not indicative of future results. Diversification cannot assure a profit or guarantee against a loss. The S&P 500 Index is a broad based unmanaged index of 500 stocks, which is widely recognized as representative of the equity market in general. Indices are unmanaged and do not incur fees. One cannot directly invest in an index.

Fee-Based Planning offered through W3 Wealth Advisors, LLC – a State Registered Investment Advisor – Third Party Money Management offered through ValMark Advisers, Inc. a SEC Registered Investment Advisor – Securities offered through ValMark Securities, Inc. Member FINRA, SIPC – 130 Springside Drive, Suite 300 Akron, Ohio 44333-2431 * 1-800-765-5201 – W3 Wealth Management, LLC and W3 Wealth Advisors, LLC are separate entities from ValMark Securities, Inc. and ValMark Advisers, Inc.

Monthly Market Insights from Bill Schiffman – November 2019

“You can’t always get what you want… you can’t always get what you want… you can’t always get what you want… but if you try sometimes… well, you might find… you get what you need.”

It’s hard to believe that this Rolling Stones classic from the “Let It Bleed” album is fifty years old. Drummer Charlie Watts is not heard on the track because, as Mick Jagger said, “he couldn’t play the groove” (session player, Jimmy Miller, did the honors). That obscurity duly noted, the song is still one of my favorites. The application for this missive, as you might imagine, has to do with President Trump.

I think it’s a fair statement to say that the President would want everything related to the impeachment saga to be quashed. He would almost certainly desire to hear less news about his attorney, Rudy Giuliani, consorting with two Ukrainians charged with felonies. He’d probably be happy to have criticism of his policy to withdraw troops from Syria be silenced. However, none of the above seems to be happening anytime soon.

That being said, Trump did receive two things over the past week that he truly needed: the killing of ISIS leader Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi and the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by another quarter-point. Al-Baghdadi’s death was an occasion for a victory lap, although some pundits decried his less than circumspect news conference announcing the event. Cheaper money in the face of a slowing economy is perhaps even more important for Trump’s psyche.

I have opined for a couple of months that the linchpin for the President’s re-election hopes is rooted in the stock market remaining at current or higher levels. For many voters, impeachment proceedings are nowhere near as important as their net worth statements. Folks have selected candidates for decades based on their pocketbooks, and there’s no apparent reason for this trend to cease. Therefore, it’s critical for the markets to remain robust, at least until a year from now. The President will continue to do everything in his power to make sure that this goal is achieved.

I disagree with the Fed’s recent decision. I also didn’t feel that the previous rate cut was warranted. I’m an outlier here since I’d prefer to have the Fed keep dry powder on hand in the event of a truly serious economic downturn. The newly released Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figure of 1.9% for third-quarter does indeed signal a slowing economy. But 1.9% is growth, albeit rather anemic. The definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth. Fed Chairman Powell’s decision to lower rates is either bowing to the relentless pressure of President Trump and Wall Street or the harbinger of seriously bad times ahead. I’m not buying the latter supposition, at least in the near term. The US economy is largely based on the health of the consumer, and that segment seems to be alive and well. Look at upscale restaurants in your city on weeknights… are they busy? You bet. Are flights and cruise ships full? Yep. Thoroughbred horse sales, arguably a terrific example of purely discretionary spending, continue to break records. Predictions of holiday spending are positing year over year increases. I’m not waving the recession flag yet, and neither is the stock market.

October was positive overall for equities, and relatively flat for fixed income and commodities. All three major averages hit new highs during the month, and there appears to be additional upward momentum on the horizon. As some economists wring their hands, remember this important metric: the dividend yield on the S&P 500 is higher than the ten-year Treasury rate. Isn’t this simple fact alone a reason to own stocks until fiscal monetary policy changes? I think so. Yes, we can have a correction at any time. However, I still feel that the macro landscape is mildly positive.

As always, our investment team is monitoring portfolio performance. Please feel free to reach out to us at any time. We’re thankful for your continued support and trust. As the holidays roll around, maybe we’ll get what we both want and need. A Santa Claus rally would give us ‘Satisfaction’ on both fronts.”

Sincerely,

Bill Schiffman

Registered Representative

The opinions expressed in this letter are those of William Schiffman and should not be construed as specific investment advice. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, no representation is made to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance information is historical and not indicative of future results. Diversification cannot assure a profit or guarantee against a loss. The S&P 500 Index is a broad based unmanaged index of 500 stocks, which is widely recognized as representative of the equity market in general. Indices are unmanaged and do not incur fees. One cannot directly invest in an index.

Fee-Based Planning offered through W3 Wealth Advisors, LLC – a State Registered Investment Advisor – Third Party Money Management offered through ValMark Advisers, Inc. a SEC Registered Investment Advisor – Securities offered through ValMark Securities, Inc. Member FINRA, SIPC – 130 Springside Drive, Suite 300 Akron, Ohio 44333-2431 * 1-800-765-5201 – W3 Wealth Management, LLC and W3 Wealth Advisors, LLC are separate entities from ValMark Securities, Inc. and ValMark Advisers, Inc.

Monthly Market Insights from Bill Schiffman – October 2019

“Yesterday…all my troubles seemed so far away…now it looks as though they’re here to stay…so now I long for yesterday…”

These slightly altered classic Beatles lyrics might just be today’s theme song for the White House. President Trump is now faced with perhaps the most difficult trial of his tumultuous career. The transcript of his phone call with the President of Ukraine is troubling on a number of levels. The storage of this conversation (and presumably many others of similar ilk) on a separate server ordinarily reserved for highly classified data strikes a parallel with Watergate except with more advanced technology. The House inquiry into Trump’s possible impeachment looks to be the dominant news story for weeks to come.

My role as an investment commentator does indeed need to be concerned with politics from time to time. The boundaries between economics and politics are not always clearly delineated. What happens on the domestic and world stages can have an enormous effect on investor confidence. Let’s examine the early reaction from Wall Street to this bombshell within the news cycle.

One would think that in the wake of this inquiry that Wall Street would react with significant volatility. After all, we’re talking about the potential ouster of the President of the most powerful country in the world. However, reaction in virtually all sectors of the market has been tepid at best. Why?

There are several potential reasons to ponder:

1.) Many of us are fatigued by the almost daily travails of the President, and this storyline is not that much different from the Mueller probe.

2.) House Democrats will not present the case for impeachment in a way that changes enough people’s minds about the threat to our elections and national security that this whistle-blower complaint has outlined.

3.) President Trump will not be impeached due to the Republican Senate holding its ground of support.

4.) Even if he were to leave office, Wall Street is confident that the economics of new President Pence would be similar to those of his predecessor.

5.) Washington will remain in gridlock until the 2020 election, and so little if any important economic legislation will be passed in the interim.

I’m of the opinion that this story has legs if nothing else. Wall Street has done an excellent job of divorcing itself from the controversy thus far, but further volatility may lie ahead. We’ll have to wait and see what transpires.

September ended the third quarter with a bit of a whimper. Equities have been moving sideways for a while now, and that’s actually a positive sign. In the first place, this type of action is generally seen as a consolidation of gains that have been previously achieved. Secondly, stocks have held up remarkably well in the face of plenty of potentially negative news. There’s seemingly a lot to panic about (threat of recession, Iran, upcoming election, trade war, climate change, impeachment inquiry), but Wall Street has thus far refused to succumb to the anxious atmosphere. Fixed income has stabilized, as has the price of gold.

I wrote last month that I’m cautiously optimistic until the election. I maintain that the most critical element for Republican success for both the Presidency and Congress is a healthy stock market. Despite the deep divides and rancor that epitomize this administration, most folks are happy with the progress of their portfolios. The old adage of people “voting with their wallets” might hold true again in 2020. If it does, everything else might simply be background noise.

In the meantime, I’m sure that President Trump is longing for yesterday. He’s certainly a competitor, and will fight this new charge in the only way he knows how. I’m confident that there will be even more rallies to bolster his base. His rhetoric will remain true to this style – take no prisoners and scorch the earth. What will happen on the impeachment front is anybody’s guess at this juncture. How Wall Street might react as the circus proceeds is also up for grabs.

Kelley, RC, Christie, and I will continue to monitor your holdings. If you would like to talk about things, please send us an e-mail or give us a call. Our team is here to help guide you through these interesting times. Thanks as always for your trust and support. We look forward to hearing from you soon.

Sincerely,
Bill Schiffman

Registered Representative

The opinions expressed in this letter are those of William Schiffman and should not be construed as specific investment advice. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, no representation is made to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance information is historical and not indicative of future results. Diversification cannot assure a profit or guarantee against a loss. The S&P 500 Index is a broad based unmanaged index of 500 stocks, which is widely recognized as representative of the equity market in general. Indices are unmanaged and do not incur fees. One cannot directly invest in an index.

Fee-Based Planning offered through W3 Wealth Advisors, LLC – a State Registered Investment Advisor – Third Party Money Management offered through ValMark Advisers, Inc. a SEC Registered Investment Advisor – Securities offered through ValMark Securities, Inc. Member FINRA, SIPC – 130 Springside Drive, Suite 300 Akron, Ohio 44333-2431 * 1-800-765-5201 – W3 Wealth Management, LLC and W3 Wealth Advisors, LLC are separate entities from ValMark Securities, Inc. and ValMark Advisers, Inc.